Department of State TELEGRAM SECRET 137 PAGE’ @1 TAIPEI 94374 @50520Z a mene 19 ACTION: SS 79 —ed) INFO: CIAE: 084/070 W Mb R 9@50443Z SEP 68 FM: AMEMBASSY TAIPEI! TO SECSTATE WASHDC 6@27° INFO: AMCONGEN HONG KONG CynCPAC: ALEh S°E'C R €.T TAIPEI 4374 NOFORN- earercnmnctocepreemnsernmmmenre ei ORGS 85 CINCPAC FOR POLAD SUBJECT: COUNTRY TEAM ASSESSMENT OF. GRC INTENTIONS REF: STATE 135828 yt/ | fe QURING THE PAST THREE MONTHS THERE HAVE BEEN No: INDI= = CATEONS THAT THE GRC: INTENDS TO. MOUNT ANY MAJOR UNILATERAL % MILITARY OR PARAMILITARY OPERATION. AGAINST THE MAINLAND*® “THERE HAS ON OTHER HAND: BEEN CONSIDERABLE’ CONCERN MANIFESTED PRINCIAPALLY BY PRESIDENT CHIANG AND MINISTER: OFi NATTONAL: DEFENSE CHIANG CHING*KUO: THAT THE! CHICOMS MAY BE PLANNING: AN ATTACK! ON QUEMOY AND MATSU BEFORE OCTOBER® BEGINNING WITH A CONVERSATION WITH! OUTGOING CINCPAC: ADMIRAL: SHARP: JUNE 20 THE GIMO* CCK! ANDI FONMIN HAVE’ CARRIED THEME OF! POSSIBILITY OF ATTACK: ON! OFFSHORES: IN CONVERSATIONS. BETWEEN® 1} PRESIDENT CHIANG AND AMBASSADOR’ MCCONAUGHY JUNE 25% 2) FONMIN: AND. AMBASSADOR! JUNE. 23 3) DEFMIN’ AND. ADMIRAL: CHEW * JULY’ 35 4) CCK AND MAAG CHIEF GEN CICCOLELLA: JULY 83 5) GIMO AND AMBASSADOR JULY 153.6) CCK AND! AMBASSADOR AUGUST 2% 7) PRESIDENT CHIANG» CHIEF. MILITARY ASSTSTANCE! - GENERAL! WARREN» AMBASSADOR AND GEN’ CICCOLELLA AUGUST 23 fy) 8) CCK AND AMBASSADOR: AUGUST 73 9) CCK AND’ GEN CICCOLELLA: AUGUST 8+ 10) GIMO AND’ AMBASSADOR’ AUGUST 22% Qe DESPITE THE GIMQ AND CCK'S PREOCCUPATION WITH THIS: THEMES FOR’ APPROXIMATELY TWO MONTHSs THERE APPEARS’ TO BE! LITTLE: ji , fos SECRET | ane Department of State va ECDAnn SECRET PAGE @2 TAIPEI @4374 08595292 HARD INTELLIGENCE CONFIRMING ANY’ BASIS’ FOR THIS. GRC FEAR OF: ATTACKs AND GIMO ADMITTED THIS IN HTS SESSION WITH AMB MCEONAUGHY JULY 15¢ WHILE CHICOMS HAVE CAPABILITY OF: SURPRISE ATTACK ON OFFSHORESs»s COUNTRY TEAM BELIEVES GRC: CONCERN: BASED AT LEAST IN PART ON ITS. DESIRE! TO: ALERT ‘US: TOM POSSIBILITY IN HOPE OF! WINNING: ADDITIONAL! US ASSISTANCE. OR’ COMMITMENT. @. IN: CONVERSATION. WITH! ADMIRAL! SHARP JUNE’ 20» GIMO- ApRE REED PREOCCUPIED WITH! POSSIBILITY OF' CHICOM: AATTACK’ ON’ OFFSHORES AND. TAIWAN» HE SEEMED CONVINCED. THAT CHICOMS: WOULD: LAUNCH ATTACK AS: DIVERSION: FROM THEIR: INTERNAL! TROUBLES BOLSTERED BY BELIEF (FOSTERED BY THE’ SERIES OF ANDERSON: ~ ARTICLES IN THE: US PRESS) THAT US WOULD NOT PARTICIPATE: IN DEFENSE OF OFFSHORES* 4e FIVE DAYS LATER» DURING HIS ATTACK ON: NEW YORK: TIMES’ EDITORIALY GIMO STATED: To. AMBASSADOR’ THAT IF: US! DID NOT REBUT TIMES ARTICLE HE SERIOUSLY ESTIMATED THAT CHICOMS WOULD LIKELY LAUNCH AN ATTACK GN THE OFFSHORES BEFORE: INAUGURATION OF: NEW US. PRESIDENT {TAIPEI 3641). Se DEFMIN CHIANG CHING*KUQ REITERATED GRC CONCERN: OF POSSIBLE ATTACK ON OFFSHORES IN. CONVERSATION: WITH MAAG: CHIEF JULY &e HE STATED HE’ HAD DIRECTED MND TO BRING DEFENSES ON QUEMOY AND MATSU TO FULL READINESS IN ANTICIPATION OF: CHICOM ATTACKe HE REASONED THAT CHICOMS PROBABLY FEEL: TIME- OPPORTUNE FOR MOVE AGAINST OFFSHORES SINCE 1) US HAS SHOWN IT pOES NOT INTEND TO BECOME INVOLVED IN ANY: ADDITIONAL: ASTAN: CONFLICTS AND 2} SUCH: AN ACTION MIGHT STRENGTHEN COMMUNIST epee Lesa PARIS’ PEACE TALKSe (TAIPET 3641) 6« GRC CONCERN OVER. THE OFF SHORES: WAS NOT MENTIONED TO i US’ UNi AMBASSADOR BALL? AND: ASST ‘SECRETARY SISCO: DURING THEIR: TALKS! WITH GIMO: JULY 27 GRC: ANXIETY» HOWEVER» WAS AGAIN! VOICED. BY DEFMIN. TO AMBASSADOR: IN: THEIR: CONVERSATIONS: OF! AUGUST 2B AND! 7 AND: TO GEN* CECCOLELLA IN’ THEIR: MEETING AUGUST) Qs ‘ DURING THE AUGUST 7 CONVERSATION! CCK: TOLD: AMBASSADOR’ GRC i STILLi ESTIMATED! CHICOMS: MIGHT . TEST: OFF SHORES’ BEFORE THE END . OF' SEPTEMBER»* HE. REMARKED: THAT HITS’ GOVERNMENT .HAD NOT . - * OBSERVED. ANY DEFINITE. SIGNS’ OF' COMMUNIST MILITARY PREPARATION BUT REPEATED THAT THE: GRC ASSESSHENT APPEARED. VALID: BECAUSE! te 4a SECRET SECRET PAGE @3 TAIPEI 94374 @5@526Z THE] INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE: SUGGESTED THAT THES WOULD BE THE FAVORABLE TIME FOR AT LEAST LIMITED AGGRESSIVE MOvES AGAINST OFFSHORES* KINMAN DEPUTY DEFENSE! COMMANDER CONFIRMED THAT NO: INFORMATION AVAILABLE OF. IMMINENT CHINESE! COMMUNIST ATTACK AGAINST OFFSHORES*s (FCT+9924) 7° THOUGH ADDITIONAL! DEFENSE. PREPARATIONS HAVE' BEEN UNDER® TAKEN. ON THE OFFSHORE ISLANDs» NEW DEFENSE. CONSUTRUCTIONs CIVIL’ DEFENSE EXERCISESs INCREASE IN EMERGENCY FOOD SUPPLIES AMONG THE. CIVILIAN POPULATION, THERE HAS BEEN NO EFFORT TO PREPARE THE POPULATION ON TAIWAN FOR POSSIBLE CHINESE COMMUNIST ACTION IN THE STRAITS» THE CONCERN DESCRIBED ABOVE HAS BEEN CONFINED TO OFFICTALS AT THE HIGHEST LEVEL AND: HAS NOT BEEN GIVEN GENERAL DISSEMINATION» 8» IN} TRI®BORDER AREAS OF: THAILANDs LAOS» BURMAs GRC HAS CONTINUED NEW TACK OF ATTEMPTING TO WOO KMT IRREGULAR: FORCES AND BRING THEM UNDER GRC’ CONTROL® IN EARLY APRIL» MND HAS REPORTEDLY "VIRTUALLY APPROVED" A PLAN TO COMBINE THREE: CHINESE IRREGULAR FORCES: IN TRI*BORDER INTO. UNIFIED. ANTI « COMMUNTST UNTT*s THE PLAN: WHICH WAS PREPARED BY IBMND: ALSO REPORTEDLY CALLED! FOR SECURING AN AIRSTRIP. EN BURMA FOR’ RESUPPLY (FCT#9865)« IN, EARLY JUNE» THE GRC SENT GENERAL! LO HANS CHING TO MEET WITH IRREGULAR LEADERS La AND: TUAN! AND EXPLAN GRC PROPOSALS: CONCERNING TAKEOVER: IN COMMAND ONE: PROPOSAL! CALLED: FOR: Li AND TUAN TO: RELINQUISH COMMAND: IN’ SIX MONTHS» BUT THEY APPARENTLY HAVE: STILL! REFUSED TO STEP DOWN: (FTB! 125743) 6 NEGOTIATIONS» ACCORDING TO: CAS: (FTB 1209528) RECIVED A FURTHER SETBACK WHEN ON! JULY 29° GENERAL: TUANs COMMANDER: OF: CHINESE’ IRREGULAR THIRD: DIVISION. REPORTEDLY: RECEIVED’ A PERSONAL: LETTERi FORM. GRC. GENERAL! Lo: HAN® CHING: INFORMING TUAN THAT NO: FURTHER | EFFORT WOULD: BE’ MADE: BY THE GRCi TO’ REACH AGREEMENT WITH THE! IRREGULAR. LEADERS. FoR REORGANIZATION OF. THE IRREGULARS’ UNDER CONTROL! OF’ GRC WITHOUT FIRM CONTROL: OF: COMMUNICATIONS OVER: THE IRREGULARS, GRC: HOPES FOR FORGOING: GUERRILLA: UNITS CAPABLE. OF SIGNIFICANT’ MAINLAND: INCURSIONS ARE VIRTUALLY UNOBTAINABLE® GP*3» MCCONAUGHY NOTE’ HANDLED LIMDIS PER S/S#Oo SECRET